What Could Chicago Bears Get if They Trade 2024 No. 1 Overall NFL Draft Pick?

Last year, the Chicago Bears traded the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft to the Carolina Panthers for the No. 9 pick, a first-round pick in 2024, three second-round selections and wide receiver D.J. Moore.

As a result of that deal, Chicago once again finds itself with the top selection as well as the No. 9 pick. And again, the Bears could trade down for draft capital and/or roster upgrades if they decide to stick with the intriguing-but-still-unproven Justin Fields at quarterback.

“I’m excited for the direction he’s going,” Bears general manager Ryan Poles said of Fields at the conclusion of the regular season. “As I mentioned before, he knows where he has to improve. I think he mentioned that the other day. We’re excited about his development and where he goes next. He showed ability to be impactful with his legs. There’s flashes with his arm. Now if we can put that together, I think we have something really good.”

If the Bears pull the trigger on another trade involving the top pick, what might they be able to fetch? Considering the hype surrounding likely No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams, and with precedents like last year’s deal in mind, the return could be astronomical.

Let’s break it down, potential trade partner by potential trade partner.

The Washington Commanders hold the No. 2 pick, but they might consider trading up to prevent another team from leapfrogging them to take whichever quarterback they want.

No team has ever traded up from No. 2 before, but it would be gravy for the Bears if they’re good sticking with Fields and want to be certain they can land an elite non-quarterback like Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.

Since no team has ever jumped directly from No. 2 to No. 1, it’s tough to gauge the value here. Based on the draft pick trade value chart, the Commanders should owe the Bears no more than a second-round selection to make this swap, but that has rarely been an applicable tool for deals involving primo picks with potential franchise quarterbacks in the mix.

The full haul here depends on a lot of variables, including who the other (real or perceived) suitors are, and how high the Bears would like to pick. However, the swap would likely require Washington to surrender at least two Day 2 selections.

Predicted return: 2024 No. 2 pick, 2024 second-round pick, 2025 third-round pick

The New England Patriots, who own the No. 3 overall pick, would be in a similar situation as the Commanders. Except they’d be looking to be the leapfrogger, so the price could increase as a result.

The Patriots also make more sense as a trade partner for the Bears than the Commanders do. They’d be helping an out-of-conference opponent and would presumably still be in line to land their favorite non-quarterback prospect at No. 3.

Ergo, we’re looking at a similar return.

Predicted return: 2024 No. 3 pick, 2024 second-round pick, 2025 third-round pick

We finally have a precedent for the Arizona Cardinals, who own the No. 4 overall pick, albeit a somewhat dated one.

To swap their No. 4 overall pick (Philip Rivers) for the San Diego Chargers’ top selection (Eli Manning) in 2004, the New York Giants sent the Bolts a 2004 third-round pick along with a 2005 first-rounder and fifth-rounder.

This deal would put the Bears at some risk of missing out on the top guy on their draft board, so the price would have to increase substantially from what the Commanders and Patriots are looking at. This swap is worth a decent first-round pick on the chart, and the equivalent of a second-rounder in 2024 or 2025 would also likely be required.

The Cards do have an extra late-first-rounder, as well as two extra third-round selections. They have some added flexibility.

Predicted return: 2024 No. 4 pick, 2025 first-round pick, 2024 third-round pick

The Atlanta Falcons hold the No. 8 overall selection, so we’re looking at a slightly smaller leap than the one Carolina made last year. In that case, the Panthers parted with a productive starter in his prime as well as a future first-round pick and two second-rounders to move up.

If the Falcons wanted to follow in the Panthers’ footsteps, it would depend on what leverage the Bears have based on interest from teams like the Commanders, Patriots and Cardinals inside the top four.

If the Bears are sure that they don’t want a quarterback and believe they can land the guy they want either at No. 8 or No. 9 or by packaging those two selections to move back up, and if nothing else is on the table, they could accept nothing more than a future first-rounder and a few Day 2 selections for the swap.

But there will inevitably be interest from other teams, and the Bears will wisely drive a hard bargain, just as they did last year.

Predicted return: 2024 No. 8 pick, 2025 first-round pick, 2024 second-round pick, 2024 third-round pick, 2025 second-round pick

Now we’re getting into swings for the fences.

The leap from the No. 11 spot to the top of the draft is worth a top-five selection, per the chart. The Minnesota Vikings don’t have an extra one of those lying around, so they’d realistically have to surrender their next two first-rounders—if not 2026’s as well—and a boatload of Day 2 capital.

If nothing else is on the table, the Bears could become more flexible. But they’d be taking a significant draft-capital hit for 2024. The risks would be higher.

As compensation for a drop down from No. 1 to No. 15 in 2016, the Tennessee Titans landed the Los Angeles Rams’ 2017 first-rounder along with two seconds and two thirds (one of which came in 2017). They did surrender some Day 3 draft capital back to L.A., but that was insignificant in the overall picture.

The Vikings already don’t have a third-round pick this year. If they want to move up for Kirk Cousins’ replacement in April, it’s relatively safe to say they’ll be without additional draft picks on the first two days of both this draft and the next one.

Because they’re a division rival of the Bears, it might cost even more than that.

Predicted return: 2024 No. 11 pick, 2025 first-round pick, 2024 second-round pick, 2025 second-round pick, 2025 third-round pick, 2026 first-round pick

The next two teams on the board—the Denver Broncos at No. 12 and the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 13—might have to cough up less than the NFC North-residing Vikings at No. 11. The difference between No. 11 and Nos. 12/13 isn’t substantial, and the Bears would likely prefer to trade the No. 1 pick out of the conference.

The Broncos don’t have a second-rounder this year, but they could probably get away with sending the Bears the rest of their Day 1 and Day 2 picks in this and next year’s draft. That would be a hefty price to pay with Russell Wilson still on their roster (for now), but wilder things have happened in this league.

That 11-spot jump is no joke with Caleb Williams up for grabs and Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels in the mix.

Predicted return: 2024 No. 12 pick, 2025 first-round pick, 2024 third-round pick, 2025 second-round pick, 2025 third-round pick

The same logic for the Broncos applies here, but the Raiders are one spot further down the draft board.

However, they can offer the Bears slightly more than the Broncos can because they have their full complement of key draft picks this and next year.

Predicted return: 2024 No. 13 pick, 2025 first-round pick, 2024 second-round pick, 2024 third-round pick, 2025 second-round pick